So I was reading Nuri Yalcin's article I'll buy iPhone if Google doesn't buy Apple. In it he speculates that Google is going to buy Apple. That started me thinking.
I don't think Google is going to buy Apple outright. Google is an online software company. They produce software which they can use to sell ads. Apple is a hardware company. Apple only produces software as a necessity to making their hardware work. Which brings us to what we might see - Google buys OSX.
There has been speculation for a quite a bit of time that Google wants to put out its own OS. Many people have suggested that at some point they will put out their own version of Linux. Why do that though if they can buy (or perhaps license) the OS with the second largest market share already. Especially since that OS is now compatible with Intel chipsets (and I suspect it wouldn't be to difficult to make compatible with AMD)
With Apple changing their name they are signaling that computers are no longer their primary focus. Which makes sense since as I understand it the iPod has been whats really keeping Apple afloat. Apple isn't interested in having to support OSX on all platforms with the myriad of hardware combinations available (which has be Microsofts great strength and headache). It could benefit them though if OSX could be spread to a wider marketshare to which they can tightly tie products like the iPhone, AppleTV, and iPod to. This is where I could see that Apple would sell (or again license - in fact licensing might make more sense) OSX to Google perhaps via a stock exchange and agreements that would give them a strong voice in future developments.
I'm not sure this is a win/win for both companies. On the other hand many said the same thing about Apple switching to the Intel platform or Google buying YouTube. The idea of Google buying OSX may sound crazy but it may be a crazy like a fox type of deals both companies are known to indulge in from time to time.
Goolge buying OSX is an interesting theory. A few days ago I would have said that this would not happen. Now that Apple have rebranded to be Apple inc. it seems like this could be a possibility. I'm sure something is up at Apple with the rebranding, I guess we will just have to wait and see exactly what.
Well the notion is a good one. John C. Dvorak wrote a column last year in PC Magazine saying that within 5 years (after the switch to Intel) Apple would no longer use OSX and make Apple Machines with Windows or any other OS. Its what Palm did to keep themselves going. they sold off the dying Palm OS and made the Treo700 able to use the Palm OS or a Windows Handheld OS
Hmmm, I'm checking John Dvorak's previous predictions and recommendations for Apple.....
Wow, what an interesting collection of questionably accurate observations!
You can't effectively separate the hardware from the software and still drive what is the Apple "experience". This is exactly the problem that the PC side of the aisle is experiencing today - marginalized performance and a host of vulnerabilities that cripple the user experience.
"Its what Palm did to keep themselves going. they sold off the dying Palm OS and made the Treo700 able to use the Palm OS or a Windows Handheld OS"
Which was a collosally stupid move. If you can't make money with Palm OS, dropping to an inferior OS is NOT likely to help.
BTW: Dvorak has an awful track record. He is regarded as a "joke".
"You can't effectively separate the hardware from the software and still drive what is the Apple "experience"."
Exactly right. Amazing that people still don't get this. Even MSFT has figured this out-- look at Xbox, where they control both hardware and software. Unimpressive, but arguably their best product ever. You can't look to the likes of Micahel Dell for innovation; he's all about using cheaper screws to attach the motherboard.
indeed.. i'm no rocket scientist, but i do know that dvorak is an idot when it comes to apple.
he just doesn't get it.
not in the slightest.
I'm looking at this from an entirely emotional point of view. I use a Mac. It gives me (at least used to give me) a level of uniqueness. If every other PC user with a P4 1,7GHZ had OSX under their hood it would lessen my position vastly. I want OSX to stay exclusive to Macs. Well, at least exclusive to whatever Mac left after the last changes.
Many people have to use Windows at work. Why inflict suffering on them just so you can feel more unique by using OS X? Not very humanitarian of you, IMHO.
As you said, many people. Not all people. People in media related businesses, people in graphics, music, video editing kind of jobs use OSX. Maybe not exclusively but a lot. Also I believe OSX is a whole lot more user friendly than ANY windows up to date. It's been easier on the eyes, on the mind and on the hardware. I categorically reject the opinion that OSX means suffering. On the contrary after my 10 year long bout with various forms of Microsoft OSs, OSX has been like a trip to the Caribbean. A never ending trip! But I may have to repeat myself, I have no clue about the technicalities of these OSs. I'm looking at the subject from a purely subjective point of view.
BTW, nice article.
"I categorically reject the opinion that OSX means suffering"
You misread my comment-- Windows means suffering-- not Mac.
Sorry man.
Interesting ideas you have offered here.
A couple of possible corrections to assumptions you offered:
iPods - while very popular still are not the majority revenue stream for Apple - the computers are still the front-runner by a good margin based on a review of the Apple 2006 annual report, computers leading iPods by something around 2.1M net. Obviously computers are going to continue to be a main source of revenue for the foreseeable future. So while iPods have in fact contributed substantially to the revenues - it is a factor of increased revenue over the already strong and increasing revenue of the computer sales.
iPhone, AppleTV and iPod are not tightly tied to the OS, in fact iPod/iTunes is cross-platform.
Thanks for posting!
I look at iPods and Apple stores and such as all about building mindshare to sell more Macs. I can't read Job's mind, but I bet he does, too.
Here's what Apple will sell:
But they're not going to sell OS X to anyone, other than customers who by Macs. And why would Apple stop selling computers? They've been doing it for 30 years, and they've been doing it very well in the last few years -- why stop a good thing? The iPod and the iPhone will not carry them as far as those two and their computer business.
Even with the iPod, iPhone, and AppleTV, the Mac is still the hub for all of those, Apple is just building out from the center. No one was making a phone that played as well with a Mac as an Apple phone would, so they made one. I don't know how well the iPhone will play with Windows yet, but if the early years of the iPod are any indication, Apple is building this first and foremost for its users.
But if you sell of OS X that removes a lot of the incentive to purchase a Mac. I bought a Mac because I wanted OS X and Macs are the only way to get that. I don't know that you could sell off some of your IP and still have enough say in how it gets developed to make a difference.
They will then position the Mac as a premium brand for providing the optimal environment to the vision they wish to achieve.
You mean like it is right now? :)
The change to "Apple Inc." reflects that they make more than just computers now, but it doesn't mean they're going to stop making computers any time soon.
It seems that a lot of people forget that Apple is a successful company -- even though they don't have the marketshare or cash of a Google or Microsoft. There's a wide spectrum for success. I remember reading an interview with Jobs in which he lamented the state of cell phones today, now a year or so later, he made his own. Microsoft might not be able to that because of their massive customer base, that customer base is also in some ways part of the problem with Windows.
Apple makes stunning products and creates a wonderful user experience.
Google is ONLY concerned with selling advertising and collecting marketing data to sell. Thats it.
I am completely uninterested in ANY collaboration between Apple and Google. Keep your "Goo" away from my Apple!
Apple doesn't need to sell anything to any other company. Apple is a very strong company with about $10b in cash in the bank. OS X is one of their crown jewels.
BTW: Dvorak has an awful track record. He is regarded as a "joke".
I think that's a bit harsh. It's like this; Dvorak isn't an idiot, but he does make outlandish predictions from time to time. He's on record (I think you can find a video on YouTube) as saying that he says thinks specifically to rile up Mac users. Basically I just consider anything he says regarding Apple as more tabloid than serious journalism. It's not exactly a life-or-death industry, and he likes to play with people. It's just entertainment.
Andrea and slade's got it. Apple doesnt need to sell anything. And its against their hub plan. I just can't buy that apple's going to get gobbled. (ok, the MS thing was a different issue)
Apple's plan was laid out years ago and it was the digital hub.
"Apple is just building out from the center"
a livingroom box, a mobile box, a music box... work if/because the "control room" is elsewhere. You can't give away the control room without breaking the paradigm. The dream of the mac is that stuff just works, I dont fight IRQs, I don't install drivers, etc. because things are planned to work together. They're plenty of other things i like about a mac, but on a mac I just plain spend more time using a computer than making one work.
Now, Google's has plenty of prominent opportunities to work within Apple's closed system. Buying OSX just isn't on the table. In order to buy the now just plain "inc", Google would need to find a seller.
Apple would not sell OSX.
Like Steve said at the keynote.
"Those that care about making great software should make great hardware"
or something like that.
"People who are really serious about software should make their own hardware."
-Alan Kay
"I skate to where the puck will be, not where it's been."
-Wayne Gretsky
Both were quoted by Steve Jobs at the Macworld keynote.
Apple isn't going to sell anything to anyone, other than consumers. The Microsoft deal came at a time when (a) Apple was suing Microsoft and (b) Apple was hemorrhaging money, it ended up being mutually beneficial. Now Apple has secured an agreement for at least 5 more years of Office support -- which means Apple will continue to get one of (if not the) greatest selling application, and Microsoft gets another licensee.
Apple isn't going to sell anything to anyone, other than consumers. And if they do, they most definitely will not sell OS X to anyone -- other than consumers who buy their computers.
I love that Gretsky quote.
Reminds me of another one I heard in a leadership course I took once.
Again Gretsky and this is a paraphrase.
"The difference between the best hockey player in the league and the worst is:
The best sees the net, the worst sees the goalie."
To succeed focus on the goal your trying to reach, not the obstacles.
I still don't understand why anyone thinks Google would want their own OS. It makes no sense from a technological perspective, and it makes no sense from a business perspective. I just can't think of a single compelling reason that Google would need or want to get into the OS business.
Maybe to dominate the whole technology business? You know, an OS now, a hardware company later?
Google makes money on helping people find data. Their business model is entirely focused on that. It would be an incredibly stupid business more for them to try to move into a whole bunch of entirely unrelated markets. They're successful now because they're the best at what they do. If they made an OS, I can almost guarantee that they would not dominate, and they would probably lose a lot of money. It just doesn't make any sense.
Adam, you see Google as a search engine. Many of us see it as a bloodthirsty mega-corp bent on world domination. At least I do.
Actually, Google already has an OS -- they have a special build of Linux they use internally.
Andrew: That OS is for servers. People here are talking about consumer, desktop OSes. I think that internal OS is the reason for all this speculation. There area lot of people who don't know that there's a difference between a custom OS for an internal server and a desktop OS.
I'm not well read on the subject but I think many large corporations have some sort of specialized OS for internal use. We're not speculating about that.
Right, I'm not saying that you're thinking of that one. I'm just saying that I think this rumor probably got started by people who didn't understand the difference. Now people are just running with it without stopping to think about whether Google could actually benefit from their own desktop OS. I haven't heard any even remotely convincing reasons that Google could make a profit from a desktop OS.
That OS is for servers. People here are talking about consumer, desktop OSes.
Yeah I know, but still it's an OS :)
But in all seriousness, an ad-based desktop OS? The last thing I want on my desktop every time I turn on my computer is a bunch of ads. I don't even like keeping files and folders on my desktop.
If anything I could see Google releaseing a micro OS that could be installed on a cheap cheap cheap thin client PC.
The OS's main job would be to get the PC connected to Google servers where all the users files and apps are.
An ad-based OS is a good plan, it just aint gonna be osX.
If I weren't on a computer all day, I would need browsing, email, photo gallery and a word processor. If I'm adventurous, maybe a spreadsheet.
Control the defaults and build a lightweight thin-client os connected to your virtual hard drive. You can get by on a 1ghz, lock down your local access for security, eliminate data loss, become location-independent, and cut your cost and maintenance.
I'd recommend it to most people. If the os is the vehicle to the ads (think limited stop monorail vs free roaming 4x4), it doesn't need to offensively commandeer your machine.
I believe in power to the people, in your right to dismantle your security settings or delete the sys32 directory. You should be able to add liquid-cooled mods or just paint flames on the side.
However, many people want to garden in their free time. They don't want to know if they have norton or mcaffe. Let em do the half-dozen things they might want and then get on with their lives.
We've reached a point in hardware and software that upgrading is manufactured in. There are few compelling reasons to get a new system. Most of those reasons are so things will continue to work, not because consumers are getting more services.
Apple basically gives away their OS (no license key) and wants to help you keep your system updated. I buy a new mac, then put the new os on my old macs. I stay in their ecosystem and continue to buy hardware and software. When I wipe a machine, I grab the nearest os disc and w/o worrying about my "genuine advantage" disabling my machine or digging out license keys.
In comparison, its pretty nice. BUT - i still have to reinstall all my proggies and info. If I could divorce the machine from operation.... I would have a genuinely compelling reason to move to google os, see their relevant non-intrusive ads (vs watching a 15sec commercial before I can check mail), and ultimately stay in their ecosystem.
I'm not going to move, because my harddrive is their server and my mail sits on their machine. But the biggest reason not to move is because its the thought of going back to office upgrade serial numbers and anti-virus schemes is too terrible to think about.
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